Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 9 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 15 July 2026 at 23:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 15th strongest of the 19 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 20 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Special Marine Warning issued July 15 at 6:39PM EDT until July 15 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Upton NY
Urban PEI: 15,818 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 20 May 2026
- July 15, 2026 · score 39 · 7.4 km
- July 4, 2026 · score 43 · 10.5 km
- September 1, 2026 · score 37 · 12.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 40.0934, -73.4478 |
| Nearest City | Asbury Park (50 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 15.8K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-15T22:39:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Special Marine Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a5c2dfc211e0aa1b43c364ff1a2df0ac |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-15T22:39:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-15T22:42:29.362Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Special Marine Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 to 60 NM; Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Manasquan Inlet NJ from 20 to 40 NM; Waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Little Egg Inlet NJ from 20 to 60 NM |
| Headline | Special Marine Warning issued July 15 at 6:39PM EDT until July 15 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Upton NY |
| Expires | 2026-07-15T19:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Upton NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a5c2dfc211e0aa1b43c364ff1a2df0acd72c84a9.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.23b74b2852a7209c844f62fc48786108cb0b2807.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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